Winter is Coming (Proba)
Seasonality drives fluctuations in the probability of pathogen emergence, with dramatic consequences for public health and agriculture. We show that this probability of pathogen emergence can be vanishingly small before the low transmission season. We derive the conditions for the existence of this winter is coming effect and identify optimal control strategies that minimize the risk of pathogen emergence. We generalize this framework to account for different forms of environmental variations, different modes of control and complex pathogen life cycles. We illustrate how this framework can be used to improve predictions of Zika emergence at different points in space and time.