Seasonality and the persistence of vector-borne pathogens

Many vector-borne diseases are affected by the seasonality of the environment. Yet, the influence of the periodic fluctuations of the environment on the persistence of pathogens remain unclear. We analyse a general vector-borne disease model and we show that whether seasonality has a positive or negative effect on pathogen persistence depends on which component of the pathogen's life-cycle is affected by these periodic fluctuations. We use a perturbation analysis framework to obtain useful approximations to evaluate the overall consequences of seasonality on the persistence of pathogens. These approximations allow us to better understand why seasonality in vector density or in the biting rate of the vector can have opposite effects on pathogen dynamics.